Influence in Voting
Have you ever wondered what really is meant by a “deciding vote” on the Supreme Court or a “swing State” in a presidential election? These terms are bandied about by the media, but their meaning isn’t obvious. After all, every vote is equal, isn’t it? I decided to explore this question back in 2004 during the election year media bombardment. What started as a simple inquiry quickly grew into a substantial project. The result was an article on the subject, which I feel codifies the desired understanding. The paper contains a rigorous mathematical framework for block voting systems (such as the electoral college), a definition of “influence”, and a statistical analysis of the majority of elections through 2004. The work is original, but not necessarily novel. Most if not all has probably been accomplished in the existing literature on voting theory. This said, it may be of interest to a technical individual interested in the subject. It is self-contained, complete, and written from the standpoint of a non-expert in the field. For those who wish to go further, my definition of “influence” is related to the concept of “voting power” in the literature (though I am unaware of any analogue to my statistical definition).